Submitted on September 17th, 2008 by Andre Angelantoni (not verified)
Mr. Schwartz really should get some more current information. We no longer need models to see how close the peak in oil production is. We can simply add up the number of megaprojects coming online and subtract the global decline rate -- yes, we're that close to the peak. The graph showing the result is here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419
But it's too quick to dismiss the models; they tend to cluster around 2 trillion barrels and we've already consumed one trillion barrels (see Dr. Mill's page here and scroll down until you see the globe with straws sticking out, the graph is just below).
Not only that, he is missing the fundamental distinction that most people who don't get peak oil miss: it's not a matter of total reserves, it's how quickly the oil can be produced. The peak of global oil discovery was in the 1960's and every decade since we've found less oil and in harder and more expensive to reach areas. (For a graph of discovery, again see Dr. Mill's page.)
Given that we are currently using 3 to 4 barrels of oil for every barrel we discover, and that the majority of oil producing countries are now in decline (Russia announced in February that its oil production is declining, Mexico's Cantarell supergiant decreased 36% from July 07 to July 08, which is leading Mexico to cease being an exporter by about 2015, and there is indirect evidence that Saudi Arabia is struggling to keep its production up) the only way to be optimistic is if one doesn't actually know what's happening, just like Mr. Schwartz.
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Too Bad Schwartz Isn't Up To Date
Submitted on September 17th, 2008 by Andre Angelantoni (not verified)Mr. Schwartz really should get some more current information. We no longer need models to see how close the peak in oil production is. We can simply add up the number of megaprojects coming online and subtract the global decline rate -- yes, we're that close to the peak. The graph showing the result is here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419
But it's too quick to dismiss the models; they tend to cluster around 2 trillion barrels and we've already consumed one trillion barrels (see Dr. Mill's page here and scroll down until you see the globe with straws sticking out, the graph is just below).
Not only that, he is missing the fundamental distinction that most people who don't get peak oil miss: it's not a matter of total reserves, it's how quickly the oil can be produced. The peak of global oil discovery was in the 1960's and every decade since we've found less oil and in harder and more expensive to reach areas. (For a graph of discovery, again see Dr. Mill's page.)
Given that we are currently using 3 to 4 barrels of oil for every barrel we discover, and that the majority of oil producing countries are now in decline (Russia announced in February that its oil production is declining, Mexico's Cantarell supergiant decreased 36% from July 07 to July 08, which is leading Mexico to cease being an exporter by about 2015, and there is indirect evidence that Saudi Arabia is struggling to keep its production up) the only way to be optimistic is if one doesn't actually know what's happening, just like Mr. Schwartz.
André Angelantoni
www.PostPeakLiving.com